000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212137
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
237 PM PDT SAT MAY 21 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08.5N75W TO 10.5N98W TO 07N114W
TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 08N125W TO 08N133W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N133W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM NORTH AND 210 NM SOUTH OF TROUGH
FROM 96W TO 127W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF AXIS WEST OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ARIZONA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 32N114W TO
30N115W. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT, GENERALLY
NORTH OF 29N INSIDE THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING TO AROUND 15 KT OVERNIGHT.
SEAS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BUILD 6-8 FEET THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THEN SUBSIDE AS THE WIND DIMINISHES. OTHERWISE, MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT
WHERE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES INCREASE LOCAL WINDS AND SEAS.

ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE
AREA, CENTERED ON A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 38N145W, AND EXTENDS 
SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 17N107W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE PACIFIC
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO LAS ISLAS TRES
MARIAS, WHERE SEAS CONTINUE 4-6 FT IN MAINLY NORTHERLY SWELL.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS ARE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH
MONDAY, EXCEPT WHERE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND
20 KT AND SEAS 5-7 FT EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO
AROUND 20 KT WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THEN DIMINISH TO MODERATE THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE, MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, ALONG WITH 3-5 FOOT SEAS,
BUILDING TO 4-7 FEET BY THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK, AS A NEW PULSE
OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHWEST SWELL REACHES THE REGION.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DESCRIBED ABOVE DOMINATES THE AREA WEST OF
120W THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N125W WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE LOW. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
TEMPORARILY BUILD TO 8 FEET IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AROUND 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED.

OTHERWISE, MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN
THE ITCZ AND 22N THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK. COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FEET WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, AS THE PARENT HIGH CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGING SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

$$
STRIPLING