000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211445
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 21 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1445 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N79W to 10N100W to
08N110W to low pressure near 09N120W to 08N130W. The
intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 08N130W to
06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nautical
miles either side of the axis between 99W and 119W, and also
between 124W and 133W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is within 180 nautical miles in the northwest
semicircle of the low pressure center.

...DISCUSSION...   

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

Weak 1008 MB low pressure is in the far northern Gulf of
California near 31N114W, with a weak cold front or frontal
trough extending southwest from the low to the northern portion
of the Baja California peninsula. Fresh to strong southerly
winds are possible within 60 nautical miles in the southeast
semicircle of the low, with seas up to 8 feet. The low will
dissipate later this morning with conditions diminishing, then
the low will reform this evening with similar increasing
conditions expected for the overnight hours. Otherwise, mainly
light and variable winds and seas of 2 feet or less are expected
across the remainder of the Gulf of California into early next
week.

Elsewhere, high pressure ridging will remain across the area,
with mainly moderate northwest to north winds, and 4 to 6 foot
seas. An exception will be offshore of the Baja California
peninsula, where winds will occasionally pulse to fresh to
strong.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

Offshore winds are pulsing to fresh to strong in the Gulf of
Papagayo early this morning, but will diminish by the early
afternoon hours. Winds are forecast to pulse to moderate with
nocturnal drainage flow during the overnight hours thereafter
through early next week. Otherwise, mainly light to moderate
winds on either side of the monsoon trough are expected, along
with 3 to 5 foot seas, building to 4 to 7 feet with a new set of
cross-equatorial southwest swell by the end of next week.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

High pressure ridging extends from 32N140W to 24N120W. Weak 1008
MB low pressure is embedded in the monsoon trough near 08.5N122W
with associated convection described above. Winds may
occasionally pulse to 25 knots and seas temporarily build to 8
feet in the vicinity of the low as it moves westward around 10
knots, however, no development of the low is anticipated.

Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail through
the remainder of the weekend and the upcoming week. Combined
seas of 4 to 7 feet will gradually subside north of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ by the middle of the upcoming week, as the
parent high center associated with the ridging settles southward.

$$ 
JLewitsky