000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210900
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAY 21 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 09N90W to 10N97.5W to
07.5N117W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N117W to low pressure near
08N123W to 08N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm of the
monsoon trough between 99W and 106W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection was noted within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between
116W and 123W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was
noted within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 125W and 130W.

...DISCUSSION...   

High pressure of 1033 MB centered NW of the area near 39N146W
extends a ridge southeast to near 21N115W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ
is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds...mainly south of
18N and west of 120W. The high is expected shift S-SW while
weakening today and Sunday. This will produce a modest weakening
of the trade winds. The pressure gradient between the high and
lower pressure across interior Mexico is maintaining moderate NW
winds across the near and offshore coastal waters of Baja
California and southwest Mexico to near Manzanillo. Seas across
this area are generally 4-5 ft in mixed swell. However, a new
pulse of northerly swell generated off the California coast has
moved into the northern waters and built seas to 6-7 ft across
the coastal waters of Baja California Norte with seas across the
remaining waters north of 28N also in 6-7 ft in this northerly
swell. Conditions over this area will change little through the
morning hours before seas slowly subside through Monday.

Gulf of California...                                        

Low pressure prevails over the far northern Gulf of California.
Strong to near gale south to southwest winds prevail over the
far northern Gulf of California in the SE semicircle of the low.
The low will dissipate by early this afternoon and winds will
diminish to 20 kt or less over the far northern Gulf of
California. Low pressure will develop once again late tonight
with winds increasing to 20 to 25 kt during the overnight hours.
winds will diminish by Sunday morning as the low shifts
northeast.

Papagayo region...                                    

Offshore winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse the
next couple of nights. Winds are peaking around 20-25 kt
currently. Seas will build to near 8 ft by this morning. winds
and seas will decrease below advisory criteria by this afternoon.
Winds will pulse again late tonight...but are expected to reach
only 20 kt with seas reaching 6 ft.

$$ 
AL