000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202145 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 20 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...          
The Monsoon Trough extends from low pressure 1008 mb over
Colombia near 10N74.5W to 08N87W to 09N95W. The ITCZ extends
from 09N95W to 10N101W to 07N112W to low pressure 1010 mb near
08N123.5W to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection was noted 04.5N-10N E of 85W. Widely scattered to
scattered moderate to strong convection was noted within 180 nm
north and 210 nm south of the ITCZ W of 95w. 

...DISCUSSION...                                              
A strong surface ridge continues to dominate most of the
discussion area, centered on a 1034 mb high north of the
discussion area near 41N144W. A ridge axis extends southeast
through 30n126w to near 17N105W. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds...mainly south of 20N
and west of 120W. The high is expected to remain relatively
stationary through tonight then begin sliding S-SW while
weakening Saturday and Sunday. This will result in a modest
weakening of the trade winds. To the east of the ridge, the
pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure across
interior Mexico is maintaining moderate NW winds across the near
and offshore coastal waters of Baja California and southwest
Mexico to near Manzanillo. Seas across this area are generally
4-6 ft in mixed swell.

Gulf of California...                                          
Low pressure associated with the Gulf of California thermal
trough is forecast to develop across the far northern Gulf of
California late this afternoon and evening. Strong south to
southwest winds will develop within 60 nm southeast of the low
and gradually increase to 20-30 kt overnight tonight. Seas
across the far northern Gulf will build to 6-8 ft this evening
through early Saturday before the low shifts northeast Saturday
afternoon and winds will diminish to around 15 kt.

Papagayo region...                                     
Offshore winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse the
next couple of nights, and peak around 20-25 kt during the
overnight hours tonight before decreasing Saturday afternoon.
Seas will peak around 8 ft with the area of higher winds and
gradually subside below 6 ft by Saturday evening.

$$ 
Stripling