000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201527 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 20 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
The Monsoon Trough extends from 08N78W to 10N90W to 07N110W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N110W to 09N126W to 06N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection was noted N of 04 E of
83W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 60 nm either
side of a line from 07N97W to 05.5N106W...from 09N to 11.5N
between 113W and 124W...and within 75 nm either side of the axis
between 125W and 139W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
High pressure of 1035 mb centered north of the discussion area
near 43N143W extends a ridge axis southeast to near 17N110W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds...mainly south of 20N and west of 115W. The high is
expected to remain relatively stationary through tonight then
begin sliding S-SW while weakening Saturday and Sunday. This
will result in a modest weakening of the trade winds. To the
east of the ridge, the pressure gradient between the high and
lower pressure across interior Mexico is maintaining moderate NW
winds across the near and offshore coastal waters of Baja
California and southwest Mexico to near Acapulco. Seas across
this area are generally 5-6 ft in mixed swell.

Gulf of California...                                          
Low pressure associated with the Gulf of California thermal
trough is forecast to develop across the far northern Gulf of
California this afternoon. Strong south to southwest winds will
develop within 60 nm southeast of the low and gradually increase
to 20-30 kt overnight tonight. Seas across the far northern Gulf
will build to 6-8 ft this evening through early Saturday before
the low shifts northeast Saturday afternoon and winds will
diminish to around 15 kt.

Papagayo region...                                             
Winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse the next
couple of nights. Winds will peak around 20-25 kt during the
overnight hours tonight and decrease Saturday afternoon. Seas
will peak around 8 ft with the area of higher seas shifting west
and gradually subsiding below 6 ft by Saturday evening.

$$ 
HUFFMAN