000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200901
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 20 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N86W to 10N90W to 06N105W to
06N108W. The ITCZ extends from 06N108W to 09N122W to beyond
05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
within 90 nm north of the monsoon trough east of 88W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm
north and 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 94W and 98W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

High pressure of 1037 mb extends a ridge southeast to near
17N110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds, mainly south of 20N and west of 120W. The
high is expected to remain relatively stationary and weaken over
the next day or so. This should result in a modest weakening of
the trade winds. To the east of the ridge, the pressure gradient
between the high and lower pressure across interior Mexico is
maintaining moderate northwesterly winds over the near and
offshore coastal waters of Baja California and southwest Mexico
to near Acapulco. Seas across this area are generally 5-6 ft in
mixed swell.

Gulf of California...  

Low pressure associated with the Gulf of California thermal
trough is forecast to develop over the far northern Gulf of
California Friday afternoon. Strong south to southwest winds
will develop within 60 nm southeast of the low and gradually
increase to 20-30 kt overnight Friday. Seas across the far
northern Gulf will build to 6-8 ft Friday evening through
Saturday morning before the low shifts off to the northeast
Saturday afternoon and winds will diminish to around 15 kt. 

Papagayo region... 

Winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse the next couple of
nights. Winds will peak during the late night and early morning
hours and decrease during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Winds tonight are in the 20 kt range and will diminish to 10-15
kt this afternoon. Winds will pulse slightly stronger Friday
night into Saturday morning reaching near 25 kt with seas
building to 8 ft.  

$$ 
AL