000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170230
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC TUE MAY 17 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.     
  
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...                

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N98W to 10N115W.
ITCZ axis extends from 10N120W to 11N129W, then resumes from
06N134W to 4N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
from 06N-10N between 92W-98W.

.DISCUSSION...                                             

Broad subtropical ridge prevails over northern waters roughly
north of 13N west of 113W. An area of lower pressure near the
convergence zone associated with a pair of surface troughs,
along 118W and near 132W, is creating a tight pressure gradient
between 122W and 133W, which is evident from an ASCAT pass at
1850 UTC. It shows a broad area of fresh NE winds poleward of a
trough axis extending from 12N127W to 04N135W. This feature was
expected, as model guidance the past few days indicated the
previous low would weaken to a trough west of 130W. Convective
activity associated with the convergence zone has weakened
considerably during the past 24 hours, and only small clusters
of unorganized T-storm activity remain this evening. 

Expect benign marine conditions to prevail across the basin for
the next 48-72 hours. The trough will continue to drift west out
of the area through Wed, with winds and seas associated with the
disturbance slowly subsiding and moving w of 140W. Otherwise,
the only other item of interest in the northern hemisphere is at
the northern boundary between 118W-130W from NW swell generated
off the coast of California. Building high pressure later in the
week near 40N150W will induce fresh occasionally strong trades
north of 25N west of 125W Wed night and Thu, and help build seas
to 8-9 ft south of 30N Thu through Fri.

$$ 
Mundell