000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162120
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC MON MAY 16 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.     
  
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...                

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N90W to 08N102W to
06N109W. ITCZ axis extends from 06N109W to 11N116W to 11N126W to
05N134W to 4N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
from 05N-08N between 92W-96W. Scattered moderate convection
within 45 nm of axis between 129W-135W.

.DISCUSSION...                                             

Broad subtropical ridge prevails over northern waters roughly
north of 13N west of 113W. An area of lower pressure associated
with a pair of surface troughs along 117W and near 131W...the
remnant of a cyclonic circulation embedded in the convergence
zone the past several days...is creating a tighter pressure
gradient between 122W and 133W, which is evident from the latest
RapidScat scatterometer pass at 0745 UTC, and an ASCAT pass at
1850 UTC. These show a broad area of fresh NE winds poleward of
a trough axis extending from 12N127W to 04N135W. This feature
was expected, as model guidance the past few days indicated the
low would weaken to a trough west of 130W. Convective activity
associated with the convergence zone has weakened considerably
during the past 24 hours, and only small clusters of unorganized
T-storm activity remain this afternoon. 

Expect benign marine conditions to prevail across the basin for
the next 48-72 hours. The trough will continue to drift west out
of the area through Wed, with winds and seas associated with the
disturbance slowly subsiding and moving w of 140W. Otherwise,
the only other item of interest is on the fringe of the forecast
area north of 29N between 118W-130W from NW swell generated off
the coast of California. Building high pressure late in the week
near 40N150W will induce fresh occasionally strong trades north
of 25N west of 125W Wed night and Thu, and build seas to 8-9 ft
Thu through Fri.

$$ 
Mundell