000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC MON MAY 16 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.     
  
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...                

The monsoon trough is along 09N83W 08N93W 12N110W to a 1009 mb
low pressure center that is near 11N117W. The ITCZ continues
from 11N117W to 10N124W to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is
near 06N130W...beyond 04N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
Numerous strong from 05N to 08N from 80W eastward. Scattered to
numerous strong from 04N TO 06N between 131W and 134W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 06N between 85W AND
88W...from 06N TO 08N between 91W and 93W...and from 05N to 09N
between 96W and 102W.

.DISCUSSION...                                             

A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb subtropical high pressure
center that is near 39N135W, through 32N131W, to 26N126w
22N118W, and 19N104W. The subtropical ridge will shift toward
the west and northwest during the next 48 hours. The ridge is
forecast to merge with a new area of high pressure that is
behind a cold front that now is to the north of the area. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ/monsoon trough
to the southwest has been supporting mainly fresh trade winds,
with an area of fresh to strong winds found from 10N to 20N from
130W westward. The trades have been weakening since early this
morning. The wind speeds are enhanced northeast of the 1010 mb
low pressure center that is near 06N30W. The 0616Z ASCAT-B pass
showed fresh to strong northeast winds from 10N-16N between 122W-
131W. This low is forecast to open up to a trough later today as
it continues west around 10 to 15 knots. Fresh to strong winds
near the low/trough will shrink in area through the end of the
period early Wednesday morning. Convective precipitation that
was near the low pressure center has been diminishing during the
last day or so. The available moisture is expected to diminish a
bit during the next few days, further limiting the chance of
significant deep convection. 

Gap Winds... 

Gulf of California...The fresh to strong west-to-southwest
breeze in the northern Gulf of California is forecast to
experience pulses of 20 to 25 knots during the next 48
hours.

$$ 
mt