000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160914
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC MON MAY 16 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.     
  
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...                

The monsoon trough axis was analyzed from 10N85W to 07N92W to
11N110W to 1009 mb low pres near 10N116W to 10N120W. The ITCZ
axis was analyzed from 10N120W to 10N125W to 1010 mb low pres
near 07N129W to 05N131W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate
convection was within 60 nm north of the axis east of 93W.
Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection was within
210 NM south of the axis between 89W-98W. Scattered moderate
convection was within 270 nm north and 150 nm south of the axis
between 103W-121W. Scattered moderate convection was within 60
nm east and south quadrants as well as between 75 nm and 210 nm
west quadrant of low pressure near 07N129W.

.DISCUSSION...                                             

1029 mb subtropical high pressure was analyzed north of the area
near 35N138W, with a ridge axis extending southeastward to
18N114W. The subtropical high is expected to remain relatively
unchanged until Tue morning when it should begin migrating
northwestward, on its way to merging with new high pres behind a
cold front well north of the area. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and the ITCZ/monsoon trough to the southwest is
supporting mainly fresh trade winds, with an area of fresh to
strong winds found from 10N-20N west of 136W. These trades will
weaken and shift west of 140W later today. Winds are enhanced
northeast of the 1010 mb low pres analyzed near 07N129W. The
0616Z ASCAT-B pass showed fresh to strong northeast winds from
10N-16N between 122W-131W. This low is forecast to open up to a
trough today as it continues west around 10-15 kt. Fresh to
strong winds near the low/trough will shrink in area through the
end of the period early Wednesday morning. Convection near this
low has waned over the last day or so. The available moisture is
expected to diminish a bit over the next few days, further
limiting the chance of significant deep convection. 

Gap Winds... 

Gulf of California...The fresh to strong south-southwest breeze
in the northern Gulf of California will gradually diminish
through tonight as the pressure gradient across the area relaxes.

$$ 
Schauer