000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160230 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON MAY 16 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N90W to 10N99W. ITCZ extends from 10N99W to 12N105W to low pres near 10N116W 1009 MB to 11N122W to low pres near 08N127W to 05N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 05N to 08N between 88W-92W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 08N-13N between 109W-118W. .DISCUSSION... Subtropical ridge prevails over northern waters N of 15N w of 115W. A low center near 08N127W is moving W at 10-15 kt. Another low is analyzed near 10N116W. Satellite imagery shows a lack of organized deep convection near the western circulation center, but a large area of disorganized convective activity near the eastern low, primarily associated with low level convergence along the ITCZ between 110W-120W. ASCAT scatterometer data shows a sizable area of 20-25 kt winds well north of the western low center from 12.5N to 17.5N between 120W-126W. Expect the low near 127W to drift W-SW through Tue and gradually weaken into a trough, with winds and seas primarily NW and N of the circulation slowly diminishing. Model guidance shows the low near 116W remaining poorly organized into Tue. S-SW Winds north of 29N in the Gulf of California will frequently pulse to 25 kt during the next 24 hrs, with seas well below 8 ft. NW swell from strong winds off the coast of southern California will reach 29N Mon with seas to 8-9 ft. Otherwise benign marine conditions are expected to prevail across the region through mid-week. $$ Mundell