000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152120
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC SUN MAY 15 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.     
  
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...                         

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N95W. ITCZ extends
from 09N95W to 11N120W to low pres near 08N125W to 05N129W to
04N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection from 05N to 08N
between 84W-90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
from 06N-13N between 110W-120W.

.DISCUSSION...                                             

Subtropical ridge prevails over northern waters N of a line from
the southern tip of Baja California to 14N140W. A low center
near 08N125W is moving W at 10-15 kt. Satellite imagery shows a
lack of organized deep convection near the circulation center,
but a large area of disorganized convective activity to the east
associated with the convergence zone between 110W-120W. ASCAT
scatterometer data shows a sizable area of 20-25 kt winds well N
of the low center from 12.5N to 17.5N between 120W-126W.

Expect the low to drift W-SW through Tue and gradually weaken
into a trough, with winds and seas primarily NW and N of the
circulation slowly diminishing. NW swell associated with strong
winds off the coast of southern California will reach 29N Mon
with seas to 8-9 ft. Otherwise benign marine conditions are
expected to prevail across the region through mid-week.

$$ 
Mundell