000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151601
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC SUN MAY 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...                         

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N84W TO 08N91W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 08N91W TO 09N112W TO
10N123W...RESUMING WEST OF A LOW PRES CENTER FROM 06N126W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
04N TO 09N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W AND FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 107W
AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 13N
BETWEEN 122W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

A 1026 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 34N140W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE
TO NEAR 17N109W. THIS SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MIGRATE N-NE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE
ITCZ TO THE SW SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. WINDS ARE
ENHANCED IN THE NE AND NW QUADRANTS OF A 1008 MB LOW PRES
ANALYZED NEAR 08.4N124W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WEAKEN TO A SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR SUNRISE, WHICH WILL EXTEND APPROXIMATELY FROM 11N126W TO
05N130W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 109W
AND 122W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRES
CENTER ANCHORED BETWEEN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
IS ACTING TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN, THUS RESULTING IN FRESH TO
STRONG S-SW WIND ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
SUNRISE AND THEN WILL DIMINISH.
   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN PASS
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 10N TO 11N E OF
88W. THIS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS IN THE AREA.

$$ 
RAMOS