000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150905
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC SUN MAY 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0745 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...                         

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W TO 08N90W. THE
ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N90W TO 08N97W TO 11N103W TO
07N115W TO 11N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08.5N124W TO 05N130W TO
05N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 87W...EXCEPT 270 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 78W-81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
107W-128W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                               

THE 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH ANALYZED NEAR 32N140W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 16N105W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ TO THE SW IS SUPPORTING
MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. WINDS ARE ENHANCED NEAR
1007 MB LOW PRES ANALYZED NEAR 08.5N124W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE W-NW AROUND 10 KT...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MON. CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW
CENTER OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FOUND NEAR THE LOW WITHIN 270
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 107W-128W. THE AREA OF
LOW PRES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CONVERGE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SUPPORT CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY TUE.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SURFACE TROUGHING IS SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE THE GREAT BASIN...MAKING WAY FOR INCREASED SURFACE
PRESSURES. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGHER PRES OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND LOWER PRES TO THE S OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING
A FRESH TO STRONG S-SW BREEZE ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 0314 UTC ASCAT-B PASS OBSERVED 20-25
KT N WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS
SHOULD BE SUSTAINED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH
SUNRISE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT BY THAT TIME. A WEAKENING
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND CHIVELA PASS WILL
KEEP WINDS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY. 
   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE
TO BLEED THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCING THE WINDS TO A
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8 FT AROUND THAT TIME. DRIVING HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND DROPPING THE WINDS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

$$ 
SCHAUER