000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150230
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC SUN MAY 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...                         

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N91W. ITCZ FROM
08N91W TO 10N108W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N123W TO 06N129W TO
06N138W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
150 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CENTERED AROUND HIGH NEAR 31N140W. SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N126W TO 27N133W. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE
AREA EMBEDDED IN ITCZ IS LOCATED NEAR 8N123W...MOVING W-SW AT 10
KT. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...IN STARK CONTRAST TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION JUST
24 HR AGO. RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS WELL ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH HIGHEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT
PRIMARILY IN NW QUADRANT WITH SOME 20 KT WINDS IN THE NE AND SE
QUADRANTS. ASCAT PASSES TODAY CAUGHT FRINGE OUTER WINDS OF THE
CIRCULATION BUT MISSED THE CYCLONIC CENTER. A WIND EVENT IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING. 

EXPECT THE LOW IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO MOVE W AT ABOUT 10 KT
THROUGH MON WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW REACHING A PEAK IN INTENSITY WITHIN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...THEN WEAKENING INTO A TROUGH W OF 130W BY
MON-TUE AS IT MOVES INTO A HOSTILE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED IN THE N SEMICIRCLE IN GENERAL AND THE
NW QUADRANT IN PARTICULAR AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE.

OTHERWISE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
IN THE DESERT OF S CAL AND ARIZONA WILL INDUCE OCCASIONAL FRESH
TO STRONG S-SW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N
THIS EVENING THROUGH MON. AROUND 48 HOURS...TWO AREAS OF 8-9 FT
SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FIRST N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W
AND 124W FROM STRONG NW WINDS OFF THE COAST OF S CALIF...AND S
OF 02S W OF 110W FROM A DISTANT COLD FRONT IN THE S HEMISPHERE.

$$ 
MUNDELL