000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142120
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC SAT MAY 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...                         

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 08N95W. ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08.5N120.5W TO 06N125W TO 06N137W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM
05N TO 12N BETWEEN 117W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED AROUND TWO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS NEAR
26N129W AND 31N140W IS BISECTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 31N127W TO 26N138W. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED
IN ITCZ IS LOCATED NEAR 8.5N120W DRIFTING W-SW AT 5-10 KT. SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS VERY ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...IN STARK CONTRAST TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION JUST
24 HOURS AGO. RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS WELL ORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH HIGHEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF
25 KT PRIMARILY IN NW QUADRANT WITH SOME 20 KT WINDS IN THE NE
AND SE QUADRANTS. ASCAT PASSES TODAY CAUGHT OUTER WINDS AT THE
FRINGE OF THE CIRCULATION BUT MISSED THE CYCLONIC CENTER. A HIGH
WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO BE WINDING
DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO REMOTE SENSING DATA AVAILABLE TODAY
TO VERIFY THIS. 

EXPECT THE LOW IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO MOVE W AT ABOUT 10 KT
THROUGH MON WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW REACHING A PEAK IN INTENSITY WITHIN
THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS...THEN WEAKENING INTO A TROUGH W OF 130W BY
MON OR TUE AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED IN THE N SEMICIRCLE IN GENERAL AND THE
NW QUADRANT IN PARTICULAR AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE.

OTHERWISE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
IN THE DESERT OF S CAL AND ARIZONA WILL INDUCE OCCASIONAL FRESH
TO STRONG S-SW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUN. BEYOND 48 HOURS...TWO AREAS OF 8-9 FT
SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FIRST N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W
AND 125W FROM STRONG NW WINDS OFF THE COAST OF S CALIF...AND S
OF 02S W OF 110W FROM A DISTANT COLD FRONT IN THE S HEMISPHERE.

$$ 
MUNDELL