000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141538
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC SAT MAY 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...                           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N92W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N92W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08.5N120W 1009 MB TO
05N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 80.5W...AND FROM 05N TO 12N
BETWEEN 115W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR
09N106W AND FROM 04N TO 07N W OF 132W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                               
THE 1021 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 27N128W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 16N106W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
HAS MOVED S BY A GRADUALLY WEAKENING DEEP-LAYERED LOW TO ITS
N...WELL N OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NW AS IT
MERGES WITH ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDING E-SE BEHIND THE
LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. TRADE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZE LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC SW OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. THE AREA OF FRESH NE TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND AS THE HIGH PRES SYSTEMS COMBINE AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

1007 MB LOW PRES WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR
08.5N120W. AN EARLIER 14/0604 UTC ASCAT-B PASS CAPTURED FRESH TO
STRONG N-NE WINDS BETWEEN 150 NM AND 330 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE
LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN CURRENTLY STRENGTH THROUGH
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES W AROUND 10 KT...AND THEN WEAKEN AFTER IT
PASSES 125W BY EARLY SUN NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
MERGES...IT WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT N OF THE
LOW AND SUPPORT 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS THROUGH MON MORNING.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO
12N BETWEEN 115W AND 124W. THE AREA OF LOW PRES SHOULD CONTINUE
TO CONVERGE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUPPORT CONVECTION THROUGH
MON.

GAP WINDS...                                                   
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP-LAYER LOW PASSING N
OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY TONIGHT AND SHIFT THE SURFACE TROUGHING E THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN BY SUN. THE GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN INCREASINGLY
HIGHER PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRES TO THE S ACROSS
WESTERN MEXICO...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG S-SW BREEZE EXPECTED IN
THE NW GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29.5N STARTING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z MON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY FLOW IS BEING DIRECTED THROUGH
THE CHIVELA PASS BETWEEN TROUGHING ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
AND HIGH PRES OVER NE MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ARE BELIEVED TO BE 20-30 KT WITH RESIDUAL NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCING THE WIND. WHILE THE PRES GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO RELAX THROUGH THE PERIOD...BOTH THE NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND THE DIURNAL
PROGRESSION OF TROUGHING MOVING NW OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REACH A FRESH TO
STRONG N BREEZE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE BELIEVED TO IN
THE 9-11 FT RANGE AND WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY THIS
EVENING.
   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEED THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH SUN MORNING. NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WILL ENHANCE
THE WINDS...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO SUN MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 8 FT.

$$ 
HUFFMAN