000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140916 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT MAY 14 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0815 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08.5N117W TO 07.5N120W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07.5N120W TO 05N126W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM SE AND S QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM E QUADRANT AND 210 NM S QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS N OF THE AXIS TO 12N BETWEEN 118W-122W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 132W. ...DISCUSSION... THE 1021 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 27N129W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 17N110W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH HAS BEEN SHOVED S BY A DEEP-LAYERED LOW TO ITS N...WELL N OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NW AS IT COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW BEGINNING LATER TODAY. TRADE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE AREA OF FRESH NE TRADE WINDS SHOULD EXPAND AS THE HIGH PRES SYSTEMS COMBINE TONIGHT AND SUN. 1009 MB LOW PRES WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 08.5N117W. THE 0604 UTC ASCAT-B PASS CAPTURED A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BETWEEN 270 NM AND 420 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AS IT MOVES W AROUND 12 KT...AND THEN WEAKEN AFTER IT PASSES 122W. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGE TO THE N WILL WEAKEN AND THEN STRENGTHEN AS THE TWO HIGHS MERGE. THE PRES GRADIENT N OF THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 20-25 KT ENHANCED TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY MON. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM SE AND S QUADRANTS...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM E QUADRANT AND 210 NM S QUADRANT. THE AREA OF LOW PRES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CONVERGE LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUPPORT CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY MON. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP-LAYER LOW PASSING N OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND SHIFT THE SURFACE TROUGHING E THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. THE GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN INCREASINGLY HIGHER PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRES TO THE S OVER WESTERN MEXICO...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG S-SW BREEZE EXPECTED OVER THE NW GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29.5N STARTING AROUND SUNRISE TODAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT 06Z MON. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY FLOW IS BEING DIRECTED THROUGH CHIVELA PASS BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRES OVER NE MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE BELIEVED TO BE 20-30 KT WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCING THE WIND. WHILE THE PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX THROUGH THE PERIOD...BOTH THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH CHIVELA PASS AND THE DIURNAL PROGRESSION OF TROUGHING MOVING NW OFF YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REACH A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE BELIEVED TO IN THE 9-11 FT RANGE THIS MORNING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO BLEED THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SUN MORNING. NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW HAS ENHANCED THE WINDS...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN THE MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED AGAIN SUN MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SEAS ARE AS HIGH AS 8 FT. $$ SCHAUER