000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140230
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC SAT MAY 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...
                         
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N92W TO 07N107W. LOW PRES NEAR
10N119W 1008 MB. ITCZ HENCE FROM 08N121W TO 06N129W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 111W AND
122W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

A STATIONARY FRONT HAS WEAKENED TO A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
30N133W TO 26N140W. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS ROUGHLY N OF 18N W OF 112W. WELL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EVIDENT ON METSAT IMAGERY NEAR
10N119W BUT LACKS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. IT IS MOVING
W-SW IN A FAIRLY DRY STABLE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS
INHIBITING ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS MARGINALLY ACTIVE IN CLUSTERS NEAR
102W...113W AND 120W...AND DEFINE THE BOUNDARY W OF 133W. ASCAT
IMAGERY INDICATES GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR A SLIVER OF 25 KT WINDS DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 1630Z. 

EXPECT THE CIRCULATION NEAR 10N119W TO DRIFT FURTHER W-SW OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED IN NW QUADRANT
AS IT INTERACTS WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. SMALL AREA
OF 8 FT SEAS W OF 135W WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.

GAP WINDS...                                                

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
LATE SAT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT
AND LOWER PRES OVER WESTERN MEXICO...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG S-SW
WINDS EXPECTED N OF 30N AROUND 06Z SUN...THEN WEAKEN BY 18Z.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...DIURNAL NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS BETWEEN A TROUGH ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRES
OVER EAST CENTRAL MEXICO WILL INDUCE 20-30 KT N-NE WINDS SAT
MORNING...AIDED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE AND REACH THEIR PEAK DURING EARLY MORNING. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 9-11 FT SAT MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL RELAX SUN MORNING...WITH MAX WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 20-22 KT.
   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO
SEEP THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS
WEEKEND. NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS...WITH A
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

$$ 
MUNDELL