000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132105
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC FRI MAY 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...                         
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N98W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N118W
1010 MB. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N119W TO 06N126W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W
AND 103W...AND BETWEEN 111W-114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 119W-123W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 07N W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N132W TO 26N141W.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
ROUGHLY N OF 18N W OF 112W. WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON VISUAL SAT IMAGERY NEAR 10N118W...BUT
LACKS DEEP CONVECTION. IT IS MOVING W-SW IN A FAIRLY DRY STABLE
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS INHIBITING ORGANIZATION AND
CONVECTION. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS
MARGINALLY ACTIVE IN CLUSTERS NEAR 100W...120W AND 140W. ASCAT
IMAGERY AT 05Z SHOWED FRESH-STRONG NE WINDS IN THE NW QUADRANT
OF THE LOW...BUT LATEST ASCAT DATA AT 18Z INDICATES WINDS ARE
NOT AS STRONG...IN LINE WITH ITS POOR ORGANIZATION ON METSAT.
THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER WINDS DID HOWEVER REVEAL AN AREA OF 25
KT WINDS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 1630Z. 

EXPECT THE CIRCULATION NEAR 10N118W TO DRIFT FURTHER W-SW OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED IN NW QUADRANT
AS IT INTERACTS WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. SMALL AREA
OF 8 FT SEAS FROM 05N-08N W OF 135W WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
WEEKEND. ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE SMALL PULSATING GAP
WIND EVENTS IN THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO AND EXTREME
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 

GAP WINDS...                                                

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
LATE SAT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT
AND LOWER PRES OVER WESTERN MEXICO...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG S-SW
WINDS EXPECTED N OF 30N AROUND 06Z SUN...THEN WEAKEN BY 18Z.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...DIURNAL NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS BETWEEN A TROUGH ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRES
OVER EAST CENTRAL MEXICO WILL INDUCE 20-30 KT N-NE WINDS SAT
MORNING...AIDED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE AND REACH THEIR PEAK DURING EARLY MORNING. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 9-11 FT SAT MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL RELAX SUN MORNING...WITH MAX WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 20-22 KT.
   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO
SEEP THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS
WEEKEND. NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS...WITH A
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

$$ 
MUNDELL