000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130230
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC FRI MAY 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 08N90W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB
NEAR 08N106W...THEN CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 11N113W
TO 06N119W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N119W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW NEAR 11N113W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 99W
AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
  
BROAD RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 17N W OF 113W.
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11N113W IS
DRIFTING SLOWLY W WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
A WEAK CIRCULATION IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N106W. THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE IS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE BETWEEN 100W-110W...BUT RELATIVELY
INACTIVE ELSEWHERE. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH N-NE WINDS IN
THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW NEAR 11N112W AND MODERATE-FRESH WINDS
ELSEWHERE IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. AN AREA OF MODERATE-FRESH WINDS
IS LOCATED N OF THE ITCZ W OF 125W. ALTIMETER DATA SHOWS 5-7 FT
SEAS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR SMALL AREAS OF 7-
8 FT SEAS NEAR THE LOW NEAR 11N112W...AND ALONG 10N W OF 130W.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT THE 20 KT
WIND FIELD TO EXPAND AND THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY NW OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES W OF 120W AND INTERACTS
WITH THE SEMI-PERMANENT STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N. 
     
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO 26N140W. SURFACE HIGH
WILL BLOCK ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION...WITH THE FRONT STALLING
AND DISSIPATING FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

STRONG NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY SAT AS WINDS INCREASE TO 25-
30 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 10 FT NEAR 15N95W. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION EACH NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
   
$$
MUNDELL