000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC THU MAY 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO LOW PRES 1011 MB NEAR
08N96W TO 08N106W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 11N112W TO 08N120W.
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 101W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
  
BROAD RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 17N W OF 113W.
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11.4N112W IS
DRIFTING SLOWLY W WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
A WEAK CIRCULATION IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N96W. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
IS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE BETWEEN 100W-110W BUT INACTIVE ELSEWHERE.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH N-NE WINDS IN THE NW QUADRANT OF
THE LOW NEAR 11N112W AND MODERATE-FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE
NW SEMICIRCLE. AN AREA OF MODERATE-FRESH WINDS IS LOCATED N OF
THE ITCZ W OF 125W. ALTIMETER DATA SHOWS 5-7 FT SEAS OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR SMALL AREAS OF 7-8 FT SEAS NEAR
THE LOW NEAR 11N112W AND ALONG 10N W OF 130W. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT THE 20 KT WIND FIELD TO
EXPAND AS IT MOVES W OF 120W AND INTERACTS WITH THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH...WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS EXPANDING AS WELL. 
     
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO 26N140W. SURFACE HIGH
WILL BLOCK ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION...WITH THE FRONT STALLING
AND DISSIPATING FROM 32N132W TO 26N140W THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

STRONG NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
EVENT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE
TO 25-30 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 9 FT NEAR 15N95W. MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION EACH NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
   
$$
MUNDELL