000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120230
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC THU MAY 12 2016 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES 07N91W 1009 MB
TO 08N101W TO 12N106W TO LOW PRES 11N110W 1009 MB TO 09N115W.
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N115W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW NEAR
11N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE
OF ITCZ BETWEEN 117W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
  
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 11N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED PRIMARILY SW OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND HAS PULSED
IN ACTIVITY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS PEAK
WINDS AROUND 20 KT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY W-SW AND MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY 25 KT OR LESS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LONG TERM...IT IS LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED WITHIN
THE ITCZ. THE COMBINATION OF LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL INTERACTING
WITH NE WINDS IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO
8 FT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IN NW PORTION EXTENDS FROM 31N139W TO 28N141W.
IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH FRI AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER
OPEN WATER WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES EXPECTED.

NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY INDUCE A WEAK TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT
EARLY FRIDAY WITH WINDS TO 25 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT...THEN
RE-DEVELOP EARLY SAT WITH STRONGER WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT. 

$$ 
MUNDELL