000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112110
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC WED MAY 11 2016 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES 08N90W 1010 MB
TO 08N101W TO LOW PRES 11N110W 1010 MB TO LOW PRES 08N118W 1011
MB. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF LOW NEAR 11N110W.
AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LOW NEAR 08N118W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 122W AND 129W. 

...DISCUSSION...
  
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 11N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED PRIMARILY S OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND HAS PULSED
IN ACTIVITY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS PEAK
WINDS AROUND 20 KT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY W-SW AND MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY 25 KT OR LESS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LONG TERM IT IS LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED WITHIN THE
ITCZ. THE COMBINATION OF LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL INTERACTING WITH
NE WINDS IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 8 FT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IN NW PORTION EXTENDS FROM 31N139W TO 28N141W.
IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH FRI AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER
OPEN WATER WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES EXPECTED.

NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY INDUCE A WEAK GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP
WIND EVENT EARLY SATURDAY WITH WINDS TO 25 KT AND 8 FT SEAS.
 
$$ 
MUNDELL