000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111505 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED MAY 11 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N88W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE 08N90W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE 11N109W TO 09N114W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N114W TO 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE 08N118W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ FROM 115W TO 128W. ...DISCUSSION... A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE 1009 MB LOW IS PRESENT AT 11N109W EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER. PEAK WINDS IN ITS CIRCULATION ARE LIKELY AROUND 20 KT...BUT NO IN-SITU OR SCATTEROMETER OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. OVERNIGHT THE CONVECTION EXHIBITED SOME BANDING FEATURES... THOUGH THESE WERE TRANSIENT AND NOT ENOUGH TO BEGIN DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND NOT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS IT MOVES WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD. IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE ITCZ BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL INTERACTING WITH THE NE WINDS IN THE NW SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCT SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IMPINGING UPON OUR NW CORNER FROM 30N139W TO 28N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVE ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT DISSIPATES FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT LONG-PERIOD SWELL IS AFFECTING OUR AREA NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TO 32N CURRENTLY OR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WINDS EVENTS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING. NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY INDUCE A WEAK GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS EVENT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE CONDITIONS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING IN THE SW UNITED STATES MAY FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR-GALE SW WINDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE GULF NORTH OF 29N. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LIMITED FETCH...THESE WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER. $$ LANDSEA