000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110229
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC WED MAY 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.     
  
...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N96W TO 12N106W
THROUGH LOW PRES NEAR 11N109W 1009 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N118W
1009 MB. ITCZ FROM 07N119W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW NEAR 11N109W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
  
WEAK RIDGE PREVAILS OVER NORTHERN WATERS ROUGHLY N OF 18N W OF
114W. A PERSISTENT LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N
109W HAS WEAK CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF UNORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRC
CENTER. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING NW PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDS
FROM 34N138W TO 30N141W...THEN SW TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. 

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WEAK LOW EMBEDDED IN THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD AS AN IDENTIFIABLE CIRCULATION FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...REACHING 10N116W BY FRI WITH 20 KT WINDS IN THE N
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. MAX SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 7-8 FT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD FRONT OVER NW
WATERS WILL REACH 30N140W WED...EXTEND FROM 31N136W TO 26N141W
THU...THEN STALL WEAKEN FROM 31N132W TO 25N141W FRI...AND
DISSIPATE BY SAT. EXPECT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO BE
15-20 KT INITIALLY BECOMING 10 KT BY THU NIGHT. MAX SEAS FROM
THIS FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6-7 FT IN NW SWELL. 

OTHERWISE MOSTLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. 7-8 FT SW SWELL WILL REACH
EQUATORIAL WATERS W OF 110W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
   
$$
MUNDELL