000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC TUE MAY 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.     
  
...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 07N87W TO 12N104W
THROUGH LOW PRES NEAR 11N109W 1009 MB TO 08N118W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N118W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 127W-138W.

...DISCUSSION...
  
WEAK RIDGE PREVAILS OVER NORTHERN WATERS ROUGHLY N OF 18N W OF
114W. A PERSISTENT LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N
109W HAS WEAK CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF UNORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRC
CENTER. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR 37N142W TO 30N141W THEN SW TOWARD
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 22N151W. 

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WEAK LOW EMBEDDED IN THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD AS AN IDENTIFIABLE CIRCULATION FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...REACHING 10N116W BY FRI WITH 20 KT WINDS IN THE N
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. MAX SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 7-8 FT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD FRONT OVER NW
WATERS WILL REACH 30N140W WED...EXTEND FROM 31N136W TO 26N141W
THU...THEN STALL WEAKEN FROM 31N132W TO 25N141W FRI...AND
DISSIPATE BY SAT. EXPECT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO BE
15-20 KT INITIALLY BECOMING 10 KT BY THU NIGHT. MAX SEAS FROM
THIS FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6-7 FT IN NW SWELL. 

OTHERWISE MOSTLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. 7-8 FT SW SWELL WILL REACH
EQUATORIAL WATERS W OF 110W IN ABOUT 48-60 HOURS.
   
$$
MUNDELL