000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100220 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE MAY 10 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 09N91W TO 12N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N110W TO 08N120W TO 07N130W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 10N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W...FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 97W AND 103W...WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 360 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER...AND ALSO FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 126W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W... A N-S SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A NW TO SE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM NEAR 23N120W TO BEYOND 17N107W DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY TUE...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME WITH GENTLE-MODERATE NW FLOW FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OPEN EPAC WATERS W OF 97W. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THU EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THAT STRONG NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THU NIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT AFTERNOON. COMBINED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE OPEN PAC WATERS W OF 100W IN MIXING LONG-PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. EXPECT BOTH THE SW AND NW SWELL COMPONENTS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS FORECAST ON TUE THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT BUILDING TO 5-6 FT ALONG 15N BETWEEN 110W-120W ON THU NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT IN RESPONSE TO A TROPICAL LOW S OF THE AREA. S OF 15N E OF 110W... MODERATE E NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE EXPECTED ACROSS AND JUST N OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FT. A TROPICAL LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N110W AND IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH FRESH WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LOW OCCASIONALLY BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT. OTHERWISE...GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND MODERATE S FLOW EXPECTED S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W... A RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM NEAR 32N135W TO BEYOND 23N120W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ ALL TO THE W OF 115W...WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 136W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE SEAS SUBSIDING TO A MAX OF 7 FT BY EARLY TUE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH NEAR 30N140W ON WED...BUT WILL ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MODERATE S-SW-NW WIND SHIFT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR 28N129W ON THU BLOCKING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM ABOUT 32N131W TO 27N140W ON FRI THROUGH SAT. $$ LEWITSKY