000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC MON MAY 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N85W TO 09N90W TO 12N100W TO
A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N110W TO 09N114W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 09N114W TO 08N125W TO 06N140W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N E OF 79W TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN
91W AND 94W...AND FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 113W AND 119W. 

...DISCUSSION...
  
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN WATERS...PARTICULARLY N OF 15N W
OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA
OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS NORTH
OF THE ITCZ AND MAINLY FROM 08N TO 14N W OF 135W. BASED ON AN
ALTIMETER PASS...SEAS TO 9 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN THE AREA OF THE
TRADES IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL. THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
DIMINISH THE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN
MEXICO IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS JUST OFFSHORE
THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ESPECIALLY S OF
29N. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. 

A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY CROSSES 30N144W WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD REACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY EARLY WED
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
30N137W TO 26N140W BY WED NIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS AROUND 6 FT IN NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

A WEAK LOW PRES OF 1009 MB REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH NEAR 11N110W. WHILE WINDS REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS ASSOCIATED
TO THIS LOW...SEAS OVER THE NW QUADRANT ARE REACHING NEAR 9 FT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS. 

GAP WINDS...
   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WERE SEEN
FROM 10.5N TO 12.5N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL DOMINATE
THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS WITH SEAS IN THE 5-6
FT RANGE. 

LOOKING AHEAD...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING
WINDS OF 25-30 KT ON SAT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT.
   
$$
GR