000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090226
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC MON MAY 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N87W TO 08N92W TO 11N104W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 10N112W TO 07N121W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N121W
TO 08N125W TO 05N134W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 107W AND
112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF
THE ITCZ W OF 122W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ. THE
FRESH WINDS HAVE HELPED GENERATE A TRADEWIND SWELL WHICH IS
COMBINING WITH NW SWELL TO HELP FOR COMBINED SEAS REACHING 9 FT
FROM 09N TO 15N W OF 135W. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
BUT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OVER THIS AREA BY TUESDAY.   

A KELVIN WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE AREA HAS HELPED INDUCE
SURFACE WESTERLIES AS FAR WEST AS 121W AS DESCRIBED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. THE KELVIN WAVE HAS HELPED TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW NEAR 10N112W WITHIN THIS MONSOONAL TROUGH.
WHILE WINDS REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS ASSOCIATED TO THIS LOW...SEAS
OVER THE SE QUADRANT ARE REACHING NEAR 9 FT. THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

GAP WINDS...
   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH CONTINUES TO
LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. WINDS ARE GOING TO
PULSE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BUT
WITH THE LOOSER GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. 
   
$$
AL