000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082102
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC SUN MAY 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 09N95W TO 12N103W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 10N113W TO 07N123W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N123W
TO 07N138W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 96W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 104W AND 112W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ. THE
FRESH WINDS HAVE HELPED GENERATE A TRADEWIND SWELL WHICH IS
COMBINING WITH NW SWELL TO HELP FOR COMBINED SEAS REACHING 9 FT
FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 125W AS DEPICTED FROM THE MOST RECENT
ALTIMETER PASSES. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW 8 FT OVER THIS AREA BY TUESDAY.   

A KELVIN WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE AREA HAS HELPED INDUCE
SURFACE WESTERLIES AS FAR WEST AS 123W AS DESCRIBED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. THE KELVIN WAVE HAS HELPED TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW NEAR 10N113W WITHIN THIS MONSOONAL TROUGH.
WHILE WINDS REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS ASSOCIATED TO THIS LOW...SEAS
OVER THE SE QUADRANT ARE REACHING NEAR 9 FT WHERE WINDS ARE
REACHING NEAR 20 KT. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

GAP WINDS...
   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MAINTAINING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE IN THE 20 KT RANGE. THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS ARE GOING
TO PULSE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BUT
WITH THE LOOSER GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ISOLATED AREAS
MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS TO 25 KT. 
   
$$
AL