000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081532
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC SUN MAY 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1300 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N86W TO 07N94W TO
11N104W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N113W 1009 MB TO 07N131W. THE ITCZ
AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N131W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-
101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM N AND S
QUADRANTS AND WITHIN 360 NM E AND W QUADRANTS OF LOW PRES NEAR
09N113W 1009 MB. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W-
107W.

...DISCUSSION...
  
ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONE S OF ACAPULCO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E TO
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
TUE MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W-SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO
09N120W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
IS ENHANCING VERTICAL MOTION...WITH THE MOST ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING LIFTED IN THE VICINITY OF A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW
PRES SYSTEM NEAR 09N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 270 NM N AND S QUADRANTS AND WITHIN 360 NM E AND W
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 102W-107W. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM
AS IT TRACKS NE AROUND 5-10 KT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CLOSER TO
THE ANTICYCLONE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 90W-
101W. CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB HIGH IN THE EASTERN N PACIFIC WAS
ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 47N143W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 32N139W AND 25N130W TO 20N110W.
A DEEP-LAYER LOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE HIGH IS GRADUALLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
HOVER JUST W OF THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA MON MORNING
THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OVER
WATERS N OF 25N THROUGH MON MORNING AS A RESULT. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK IN
AREA THROUGH MON AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. AN AREA OF 7-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED SWELL
LIES FROM 08N-20N W OF 120W. THIS AREA OF SEAS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SHRINK THROUGH MON EVENING...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW
8 FT BY THAT TIME. 

GAP WINDS...
   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES TO THE SW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MONSOON TROUGH HAVE COUPLED WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW TO
SUPPORT A FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SLACKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING THE WINDS.
SEAS WERE REPORTED TO BE AS HIGH AS 7 FT BY SHIP PBAD THIS
MORNING.
   
$$
SCHAUER