000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080950 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN MAY 08 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... A MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 07N86W TO 11N104W TO 07N130W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N82W TO 10N86W...WITHIN 60 NM OF 03N80W...AND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N84W TO 09N96W AND WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N107W TO 13N114W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N118W TO 06N131W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 29.5-31N W OF 114W...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF 4 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...A NW TO SE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM NEAR 22N120W TO BEYOND 15N102W THIS WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING AND DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE NW FLOW ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL INCREASE TO FRESH AGAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...BUT A MAX OF ONLY 15 KT IS EXPECTED ON TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS W OF 97W THIS WEEK. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT STRONG NORTHERLY DRAINAGE TO DEVELOP LATE THU NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. COMBINED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS THE OPEN PAC WATERS W OF 100W IN MIXING LONG-PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. EXPECT BOTH THE SW AND NW SWELLS TO SUBSIDE WITH 3-5 FT SEAS ON TUE. THE SOUTHERLY SWELL COMPONENT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ALONG 15N BETWEEN 108-120W ON TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. S OF 15N E OF 110W... STRONG E NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE EXPECTED ACROSS AND JUST N OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO ABOUT 7 FT. OTHERWISE...GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND MODERATE S FLOW EXPECTED S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W... A RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM NEAR 32N140W TO BEYOND 22N120W. LARGE N SWELL MIXES WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL CURRENTLY RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT TO THE N OF 29N BETWEEN 125- 133W. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT TONIGHT. FRESH NE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ W OF 120W WITH SEAS OF 7-8 FT CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 09-12N BETWEEN 125-132W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TODAY WITH THE SEA SUBSIDING TO 7 FT BY SUNSET. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH NEAR 30N140W LATE WED...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED INITIALLY BY A MODERATE S-SW-NW WIND SHIFT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR 25N128W ON THU AND BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD STALL FROM ABOUT 32N131W TO 27N140W ON FRI. $$ NELSON