000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070947
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC SAT MAY 07 2016 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM FROM 12N92W TO 09N109W TO
09N121W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS AND
CONTINUES SW TO 07N130W TO BEYOND 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N81W
TO 13N87W...S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 06N89W TO 10N95W AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N118W TO 08N130W TO 04N137W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N100W TO 08N109W. 

...DISCUSSION...
  
N OF 15N E OF 120W... 

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM
30-31N WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF 7 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS
MORNING WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING BRIEFLY TONIGHT FROM 30-31N W OF
114W. 

STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER AND
TO THE S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13.5N95.5W. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...A NW TO SE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
TROPICAL WATERS FROM NEAR 23N120W TO BEYOND 15N110W THROUGH
EARLY MON...THEN SHIFT TO POSITION FROM 24N120W TO 15N103W LATE
MON. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 120 NM W OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING AND DIMINISHING TO 10-15
KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE NW FLOW ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL
INCREASE TO FRESH AGAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT.
 
COMBINED SEAS OF 5-8 FT ARE NOTED N OF 26N IN MIXING LONG-PERIOD
CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. EXPECT THE NW
SWELL TO SUBSIDE WITH 4-6 FT ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN
100-120W TONIGHT...THEN LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH LATE MON WITH 3-5
FT SEAS FORECAST BY MID WEEK IN GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

STRONG E NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE...GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND MODERATE S FLOW EXPECTED S OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  
  
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

A RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM NEAR 32N140W TO 23N120W. LARGE N SWELL
MIXES WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT TO THE N OF A LINE FROM 27N119W TO
23N130W TO 24N135W. FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND THE ITCZ W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUN WITH MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED W OF
100W AND N OF THE ITCZ BY SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE MON MORNING. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL REACH NEAR 30N140W LATE WED...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY
A MODERATE S-SW-NW WIND SHIFT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ALONG
THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR 25N128W ON THU AND BLOCK THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT BY FRI. 
   
$$
NELSON