000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070225
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC SAT MAY 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N90W TO 09N104W TO 09N110W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N110W TO 09N126W TO 05N137W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 120W AND 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...
  
N OF 15N E OF 120W... 

FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N WITH SEAS JUST BELOW 8 FT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA EARLY SAT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH SEAS IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE. 

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH
SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW. VEERING WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL HELP SHUT OFF THE GAP WIND EVENT BY SAT AFTERNOON AS WINDS
AND SEAS FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL REACH
THE 20-25 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. 
  
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N139W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N132W AND
EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 18N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ. THIS SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS HAS HELPED FOR INCREASED CONVERGENCE INTO THE
ITCZ WHICH IS HELPING FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE IN
THE ITCZ SECTION. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA
AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. 
   
$$
AL