000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC THU MAY 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT HAS PASSED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
NORTHERLY WINDS PRODUCED BY THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE
EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT DURING THE
GALE. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N93W TO 09N103W...THEN RESUMES
W OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 08N108W TO 07N117W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 07N117W TO 04N125W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
E OF 105W...AND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 136W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 06N
TO 12N BETWEEN 109W AND 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N122W WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW TO 30N121W TO 21N126...THEN
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 17N140W. FRESH TO STRONG N
TO NE WINDS WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 12 FT ARE OCCURRING NW OF THE
FRONT. THESE WINDS/SEAS WERE CONFIRMED BY
SCATTEROMETER/ALTIMETER PASSES EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE
STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD BAJA
CALIFORNIA...DISSIPATING COMPLETELY BY FRI NIGHT. SWELL
GENERATED BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW 8 FT
OVER THE WEEKEND.

A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION N OF 15N
W OF 110W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ SUPPORTS MAINLY MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 120W. SEAS
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 7 TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHERN BAJA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRI
WITH WINDS PEAKING NEAR 30 KT AND SEAS NEARING 8 FT FRI MORNING.
THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WHICH
WILL HELP TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THUS
DIMINISHING WINDS OVER THE GULF. 

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
BEGINNING SAT MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS SEAS BELOW 8 FT.
THIS EVENT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS THE RIDGE
SUPPORTING THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OVER THE ATLC BY
MONDAY. 

$$ 
LATTO