000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050228
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC THU MAY 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

WINDS FUNNELING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REACH NEAR GALE FORCE BY THU
MORNING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY
LATE THU NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO EARLY FRI MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
NEAR 12 FT WITH THIS GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT.

CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...THE FINAL GALE FORCE WIND EVENT
OCCURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL.
SINCE RECORDS WERE KEPT IN 1999...ONLY THREE GALE FORCE WIND
EVENTS...WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE...HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
MONTH OF MAY. THESE EVENTS COINCIDED WITH EL NINO CONDITIONS
DURING THE PREVIOUS WINTER TIME.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N90W TO 07.5N105W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 07.5N105W TO 07N120W TO 05N130W TO BEYOND 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W
AND 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE OF 1015 MB CENTERED NEAR 30N125W EXTENDS A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N123W WHICH EXTENDS TO 24N127W TO
20N140W. THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF THE
FRONT...N OF 28N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W. SEAS IN THIS AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE REACHING 11 FT. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
AND FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THU AFTERNOON. NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE...HOWEVER SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL STILL COVER THE
WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W FRI EVENING. 

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF
THE ITCZ AND W OF 120W. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE INTO THE ITCZ FROM
THE INCREASED WINDS IS HELPING FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AS MENTIONED ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY
THU MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$ 
AL