000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042137
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC WED MAY 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL START
TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
TONIGHT. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REACH NEAR GALE
FORCE BY THU MORNING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL
GALE FORCE BY LATE THU NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO EARLY FRI MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO NEAR 13 FT WITH THIS GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT.

CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...THE FINAL GALE FORCE WIND EVENT
OCCURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL.
SINCE RECORDS WERE KEPT IN 1999...ONLY THREE GALE FORCE WIND
EVENTS...WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE...HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
MONTH OF MAY. THESE EVENTS COINCIDED WITH EL NINO CONDITIONS
DURING THE PREVIOUS WINTER TIME.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N90W TO LOW PRES NEAR
07.5N101W TO 07.5N105W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07.5N105W TO
07N122W TO 05N131W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
115W AND 127W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 127W AND 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE OF 1015 MB CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
30.5N125W EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N125W AND
EXTENDS TO 24N128W TO 21N140W. THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS W OF THE FRONT...N OF 29N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W.
SEAS IN THIS AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE REACHING 11 FT.
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THU AFTERNOON. NW
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE SWELL
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...HOWEVER SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL STILL
COVER THE WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 121W AND 132W FRI AFTERNOON. 

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF
THE ITCZ AND W OF 120W. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE INTO THE ITCZ FROM
THE INCREASED WINDS IS HELPING FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AS MENTIONED ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY
THU MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS. 

$$ 
AL