000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040234
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC WED MAY 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 08N108W TO 07N114W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N114W TO 06N120W TO BEYOND 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 122W
AND 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE OF 1015 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N130W
EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N130W AND EXTENDING SW
TO NEAR 25N140W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT
WITH A FRESH SET OF NW SWELLS CURRENTLY REACHING NEAR 10 FT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING THU EVENING. THE NW SWELL WILL SPREAD
S AND E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE SUBSIDING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS IS SUPPORTING MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FRESHEN TRADES BY WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS WITH
MAINLY GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING. 

LOOKING AHEAD...A LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT
WILL BE INDUCED BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20-30 KT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO
THE AREA THU MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. EXPECT
BUILDING SEAS OF 11-12 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY... THE FINAL GALE FORCE WIND EVENT OCCURS IN
THE GULF IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. SINCE RECORDS WERE KEPT
IN 1999...ONLY THREE GALE FORCE WIND EVENTS...WINDS IN THE 35-40
KT RANGE...HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MONTH OF MAY. 

$$ 
AL