000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC TUE MAY 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 08N100W TO 08N110W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT TO 06N120W TO 05N130W TO
BEYOND 04N140W. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN
88W AND 95W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 99W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 04N
TO 06N BETWEEN 133W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND NOW
EXTENDS FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W. A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. A 1015 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 33N132W AND IT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE E-SE TO A POSITION NEAR 32N128W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE NW WATERS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND A 1034 MB HIGH PRES THAT FOLLOWS THE
FRONT. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 10-11 FT. THE
FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N129W TO 25N134W TO 23N140W TONIGHT...
AND FROM 30N123W TO 21N130W TO 19N140W WED NIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE NW WATERS MAINLY N OF 22N W OF 125W
THROUGH AT LEAST THU. 

A RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 15N W OF 110W. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
MEXICO IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS JUST
OFFSHORE THE W COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALSO NEAR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO BETWEEN MICHOACAN AND JALISCO. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ HAS DECREASED AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE NW WATERS. THIS RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCING BY A
STRONGER HIGH PRES TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N
REBUILDS...EXPECT FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-8 FT ACROSS
THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH PROBABLY FRI.

LOOKING AHEAD...A LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT
WILL LIKELY BE INDUCED BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20-25 KT WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
25-30 KT BY THU EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL
GALE FORCE...30-35 KT...THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. EXPECT
BUILDING SEAS OF 11-12 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE FINAL GALE FORCE WIND EVENT OCCURS IN THE
GULF IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. SINCE RECORDS WERE KEPT IN
1999...ONLY THREE GALE FORCE WIND EVENTS...WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT
RANGE...HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MONTH OF MAY. 

$$ 
GR