000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC MON MAY 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N81W TO 10N87W TO
08N94W TO 09N101W TO 08N109W. THE ITCZ AXIS STRETCHES FROM
08N109W TO 06N117W TO 06N124W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 06N128W TO
03N140W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM 06N126W TO 10N125W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N82W TO 10N88W TO 07N94W TO 10N102W TO
07N116W...AND ALSO FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 123W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA AT
30N140W. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SEAS
WILL BE HIGHEST N OF 27N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. THIS EVENT WILL
PEAK BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

SEAS TOPPING OUT AT JUST BELOW 8 FT ARE OBSERVED SW OF BAJA AND
THE MEXICAN COAST. SEA HEIGHTS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FALLING AS RESIDUAL SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

LATEST ALTIMETRY SHOWS SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT BETWEEN 07N AND 12N W
OF 134W. CORRESPONDING ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATES FRESH TRADE WINDS
IN THIS REGION. RIDGING TO THE N WILL BE REINFORCED BY STRONGER
HIGH PRES LATE TUE. AS THE HIGH REBUILDS...EXPECT FRESH TRADE
WINDS TO PERSIST AND SEAS TOPPING OUT JUST ABOVE 8 FT IN THIS
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  

LOOKING AHEAD...A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRIGGER A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT
BEGINNING BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST MARINE
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A TAD ON WIND SPEEDS BUT STILL SUGGESTS
NORTH WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND SEAS BUILDING TO
BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED AROUND 1200 UTC ON THU AND FRI IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE MAXIMUM.

$$
MCELROY