000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC MON MAY 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N90W TO 09N100W TO 07N110W TO
06N120W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT TO 06N130W TO BEYOND
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N
BETWEEN 88W AND 96W...AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 101W AND 109W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN
125W AND 130W. 


...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING 30N143W WILL ENTER THE FAR NW
CORNER OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING...REACHING FROM 30N134W TO
27N140W TONIGHT...AND FROM 30N127W TO 26N130W TO 23N140W TUE
NIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE IN NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS
THE NW WATERS THROUGH WED WITH RAISING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT NEAR
30N130W BY LATE WED.

A RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF 110W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
MEXICO IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS JUST
OFFSHORE THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...PARTICULARLY S OF 27N
AND ALSO NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO ROUGHLY BETWEEN
ACAPULCO AND MANZANILLO. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ HAS DECREASED AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATE AN AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES FROM 06N TO
15N W OF 130W. SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN MIXED SWELL ARE NOTED WITHIN
THE AREA OF THE TRADES BASED ON A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES. THIS
RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCING BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES LATE TUE. AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N REBUILDS...EXPECT FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 7-8 FT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS.  

LOOKING AHEAD...A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL TRIGGER A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT
EARLY ON THURSDAY. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS IN
THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 1200 UTC ON THU AND FRI WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

$$
GR