000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291546
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N88W TO 07N92W TO 08N100W TO
05N106W TO 08N119W TO 05N124W. THE ITCZ AXIS STRETCHES FROM
05N124W TO 06N130W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 106W AND 112W AND
IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 06N125W TO 04N135W TO 05N140W
TO 08N140W TO 10N134W TO 06N125W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FOUND FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

LATEST SCATTEROMETRY INDICATES STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS W
OF THE CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COASTS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
STRONG DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS AREA HAS ALREADY GENERATED
11 FT NW SWELL THAT ARE PROPAGATING TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA
COAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE
BETWEEN SUNSET ON SATURDAY AND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT HEADS SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
34N142W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR
15N110W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ HAS LESSENED AS THE EASTERN FLANK
OF THE HIGH WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED TRADES FROM 05N TO 15N W OF
130W TO DECREASE FROM STRONG TO FRESH.  

OTHERWISE...FETCH GENERATION REGIONS FOR NW AND NE SWELLS NORTH
OF THE EQUATOR HAVE BEGUN TO SHRINK AS THE LEADING EDGE OF SW
SWELL ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE NEARS THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. ALL OF THESE SWELL GROUPS WILL MERGE
AND DECAY OVER THE FORECAST WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ALLOWING COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN TO DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 8 FT ON MON.
$$
MCELROY