000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251508 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON APR 25 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 07.5N95W TO 07N104W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N104W TO 06N119W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 04.5N TO 09N E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 360 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 104W TO 131W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND JUST INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THIS MORNING...AND HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AND INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 28.5N121W TO 30N126W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST FRESH TO STRONG SW TO W WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH INSIDE THE NORTHERN GULF LATER THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT TEMPORARILY DISTURBS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CLIP ACROSS NW MEXICO TONIGHT WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS JUST AHEAD OF IT...AND ALSO BEHIND IT...QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY TUE MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO NW MEXICO WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...BRINGING SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT ARE OCCURRING WITH THE FIRST FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N134W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH 30N131W TO OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO NEAR 16N107W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG OUTER WINDS ARE SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA WATERS N OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 116W AND 126W. SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT IN FRESH NW SWELL COVER THIS AREA...WHILE A SURROUNDING AREA OF LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL IS PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD CURRENTLY W OF 110W. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY TUE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. ANOTHER SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...WITH ADDITIONAL NW SWELLS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. S OF 15N E OF 110W... MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...EXCEPT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OFFSHORE WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH LEADING WAVE PERIODS OF 19- 21 SECONDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6-9 FT WILL PROPAGATE IN FROM THE SW WED NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...REACHING THE SW FACING PORTIONS OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA ON FRI. ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W... THE RIDGING MENTIONED ABOVE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 110W. THE PARENT HIGH OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SW REACHING NEAR 31N140W BY WED MORNING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE N. THAT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT AND WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THU...WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. $$ STRIPLING