000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250215
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC MON APR 25 2016 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA AT 08N83W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN
ITCZ FORMS AND EXTENDS NW TO 09N98W...THEN TURNS SW THROUGH TO
06N108W TO BEYOND 05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N78W TO 06N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED OVER AND MOSTLY TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N99W TO 09N123W AND ALSO WITHIN 150
NM OF 06N136W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
  
N OF 15N E OF 120W... 

A WEAK W TO E SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM NEAR
23N120W TO BEYOND 15N102W WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SW EARLY THIS
WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS SLOWLY E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA ON MON AND TUE. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING FRESH-STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 28-32N AND E OF 125W TO THE BAJA
COAST...WITH STRONG NW WINDS ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN 120 NM W OF
BAJA FROM 25-28N ON MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX
ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR
LESS...AND SEAS DIMINISHING TO 8-11 FT LATE WED. A REINFORCING
NW SURGE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N ON WED NIGHT AND
THU IN THE FORM OF 20-25 KT NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-13 FT. THE
ASSOCIATED NW SWELL MIXING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY
SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-15 FT IN THE WATERS N OF
28N. THESE STRONG NW WINDS WILL PUSH NW SWELL SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SEAS OF 8-11 FT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 15-28N BETWEEN
110-120W THROUGH WED...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WED NIGHT AND
THU.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY TO THE N N OF
30N AND W OF 113W. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN ON MON NIGHT
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N W OF 113W...
WHILE TO THE N OF 31N NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TILL
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ON TUE.
  
S OF 15N E OF 110W...

MODERATE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
TONIGHT AND ON MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IN THE FORM
OF 7-9 FT SEAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 110W LATE
WED...AND CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE ON THU AND FRI ARRIVING AT
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ON SAT AND NEXT SUN. 
  
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W... AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N E OF 120W...STRONG NW
WINDS AND SEAS OF 9-14 FT WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT N OF
28.5N E OF 125W THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON TUE. A
SECONDARY NW SURGE WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N ON
WED NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AND 8-13 FT SEAS.
OTHERWISE...NW SWELLS CONTINUE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
NORTHERN BAJA AND EXTEND S ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF 07N W OF 120W
WHERE FRESH NE TRADES ARE OBSERVED. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FRESH
NE TRADES THIS WEEK...BUT THE NW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
SOME BEGINNING ON TUE.
     
$$
NELSON