000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242150 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN APR 24 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF PANAMA NEAR 09N80W TO ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA AND OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF EXTREME W PANAMA AT 09N83W TO 06.5N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS EXTENDING NW TO 09N99W...THEN SW TO 06N110W...THEN NW TO 07.5N118W...THEN TURNS SW AGAIN TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07.5N78W TO 08N84W TO 06N90W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND MOSTLY TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N100W TO 10N119W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N120W TO 06N140W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W... A WEAK W TO E SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM NEAR 23N120W TO BEYOND 15N102W WILL SHIFT SW EARLY THIS WEEK. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTATED NNW-SSE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL CHANGE LITTLE THIS WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW INTERMITTENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING FRESH-STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 28-32N AND E OF 125W TO THE BAJA COAST...WITH STRONG NW WINDS ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN 120 NM W OF BAJA FROM 25- 28N ON MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX ON TUE INTO WED...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS DIMINISHING TO 8-11 FT LATE WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N ON WED NIGHT AND THU ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-13 FT. THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL MIXING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-15 FT IN THE WATERS N OF 28N. THESE STRONG NW WINDS WILL PUSH NW SWELL SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 15-28N BETWEEN 110-120W THROUGH WED...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WED NIGHT AND THU. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY TO THE N N OF 30N AND W OF 113W. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN ON MON NIGHT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N W OF 113W... WHILE TO THE N OF 31N NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TILL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ON TUE. S OF 15N E OF 110W... MODERATE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT AND ON MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-9 FT SEAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 110W LATE WED...AND CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE ON THU AND FRI ARRIVING AT THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ON SAT AND NEXT SUN. ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N E OF 120W...STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 9-14 FT WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT N OF 28.5N E OF 125W THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON TUE. A SECONDARY NW SURGE WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N ON WED NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AND 8-13 FT SEAS. OTHERWISE...NW SWELLS CONTINUE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA AND EXTEND S ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF 07N W OF 120W WHERE FRESH NE TRADES ARE OBSERVED. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FRESH NE TRADES THIS WEEK...BUT THE NW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME BEGINNING ON TUE. $$ NELSON