000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240916 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN APR 24 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 08N90W TO 07N104W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N105W TO 09N113W TO 05N120W TO 04N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240-360 NM NW OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N W OF 130W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W... A SURFACE RIDGE REACHES FROM W OF THE AREA NEAR 32N140W THROUGH 22N122W TO 15N108W. THIS RIDGE WILL LINGER TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BROAD TROUGHING IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGHING AND RIDGING TO THE W-SW IS SUPPORTING NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE SEEPING INTO THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 117W AND 124W AND ARE SUPPORTING FRESH NW SWELL OF 8-12 FT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE N OF THE 32N LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE GRADIENT THEN SLACKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG SW-W WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH A BRIEF SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MON NIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE NEXT FRONT ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. A BRIEF PLUME OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH BY MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE S-SW FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. S OF 15N E OF 110W... LIGHT TO MODERATE SW-W ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRIEFLY BECOMING OFFSHORE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN IMPRESSIVE SET OF CROSS- EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW BEGINNING WED NIGHT WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 19-21 SECONDS ON THE LEADING EDGE. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SW FACING PORTIONS OF THE GALAPAGOS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FRI. COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL TRAIN...EXCEPT IN THE LEE SIDE SHADOW OF THE GALAPAGOS. ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W... MIXED NW AND SE SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT COVERS THE AREA N OF 06N AND NW OF A LINE FROM 06N122W TO 24N123W TO 28N114W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL UNDER THE ABOVE MENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGING. THE PARENT HIGH OF THE RIDGE WILL MANAGE TO SHIFT TO THE SW REACHING NEAR 30N140W TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR TRADES AND SEAS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT IN THE NW PORTION CLOSEST TO THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL BE REINFORCED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS WED NIGHT WITH A NEW SET OF NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. $$ LEWITSKY