000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240223
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC SAT APR 23 2016 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM 09N84W TO 09N97W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS AND CONTINUES W TO
08N110W THEN DIPS SW TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE S OF THE
LOW LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FROM 04-11N BETWEEN 80-88W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM OF A
LINE FROM 08N117W TO 05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE
ITCZ AXIS. 

...DISCUSSION...
  
N OF 15N E OF 120W... 

A WEAK W TO E SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE TROPICAL
WATERS FROM NEAR 23N120W TO BEYOND 15N102W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEANDER NNW-SSE ACROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW
INTERMITTENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT SUPPORTING FRESH-STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
WATERS FROM 28-32N E OF 125W TO THE BAJA COAST...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED NW SWELL MIXING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY
SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT IN THE WATERS N OF
28N. THESE STRONG NW WINDS WILL PUSH NW SWELL SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SEAS OF 8-11 FT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 18-28N BETWEEN
112-120W ON MON THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON TUE NIGHT AND WED.
THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX ON TUE INTO WED...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS DIMINISHING TO 8-11 FT
LATE WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
28N ON WED NIGHT AND THU ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-13 FT. 

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING STRONG WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH A
SIMILAR SITUATION OCCURRING BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT INTO THU. 
  
S OF 15N E OF 110W...

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-9 FT SEAS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 110W LATE WED...AND CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE NE ON THU AND FRI LIKELY ARRIVING AT THE PACIFIC COAST
OF MEXICO NEXT WEEKEND. 
  
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N E OF
120W...STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 9-14 FT CURRENTLY OBSERVED N
OF 28N E OF 125W WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON TUE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N ON WED NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AND 8-13 FT SEAS. OTHERWISE NW
SWELLS HAVE REACHED THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA AND
EXTEND S ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF 07N W OF 120W WHERE FRESH NE
TRADES ARE OBSERVED. THE NW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME
BEGINNING ON TUE.
     
$$
NELSON