000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232154 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT APR 23 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM 08N81W TO 09N100W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS AND CONTINUES W TO 09N110W THEN DIPS SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE S OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N78W TO 11N91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM 08N120W TO 06N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W... A WEAK W TO E SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM NEAR 23N120W TO BEYOND 15N102W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEANDER NNW-SSE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW INTERMITTENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING FRESH-STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 28-32N E OF 125W TO THE BAJA COAST...WITH THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL MIXING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT. THESE STRONG NW WINDS WILL SEND NW SWELL SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 18-28N BETWEEN 112-120W ON MON BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ON TUE NIGHT AND WED. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX ON TUE INTO WED...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS DIMINISHING TO 8-11 FT LATE WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N ON WED NIGHT AND THU ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-13 FT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING STRONG WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH A SIMILAR SITUATION OCCURRING AGAIN ON WED NIGHT INTO THU. S OF 15N E OF 110W... CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-9 FT SEAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 110W LATE WED...AND CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE ON THU AND FRI LIKELY ARRIVING AT THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NEXT WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W... AS MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N E OF 120W...STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 9-14 FT OBSERVED N OF 28N E OF 125W WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N ON WED NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AND 8-13 FT SEAS. OTHERWISE NW SWELLS HAVE REACHED THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA AND EXTEND S ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF 07N W OF 120W WHERE FRESH NE TRADES ARE OBSERVED. THE NW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME BEGINNING ON TUE. $$ NELSON