000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231511
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC SAT APR 23 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84.5W TO 05N94W TO 05N104W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06.5N107W TO 04.5N124W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 88W...
INCLUDING GULF OF PANAMA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 104W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 04N TO
09N W OF 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
  
N OF 15N E OF 125W...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE FAR NE WATERS...FROM NW ARIZONA ACROSS EXTREME N PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 27N125W. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
PACIFIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS
WAKE THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS PREVAIL NW OF THE
FRONT FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 120W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING
AROUND 8 FT. S OF THE FRONT...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT GENERALLY
PREVAIL ACROSS THE NEARSHORE PACIFIC WATERS OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 4-6 FT IN NW SWELL. THE WINDS
N OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE WATERS
OFFSHORE OF THE PENINSULA WHILE THEY WILL PERSIST JUST TO THE NW
OF THE AREA OFFSHORE OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA. THE PERSISTENT
WINDS NW OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE GENERATION OF
FRESH NW SWELL WHICH WILL PROPAGATE S-SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NW MEXICO LATE MON
INTO EARLY TUE. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE
TO FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N
WITH WINDS ACCELERATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAJA PASSES. A
BRIEF SURGE OF FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF.
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE A BRIEF GALE
WARNING BECOMES REQUIRED.

STRONG NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS HAVE BUILT SEAS TO UP TO 9 FT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW TO 20 KT
ANTICIPATED FOR THE IMMEDIATE GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
  
ELSEWHERE...NW SWELL SPREADING SE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF LINE
FROM 30N122W TO 18N140W ARE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELL. THE RESULT IS COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THESE MAINLY NW
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING ACROSS THE TROPICS WITH
FRESH NE TRADES N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 120W PRODUCING COMBINED
SEAS OF 8-10 FT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. TRADES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY EARLY MON ALLOWING FOR
SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
     
$$
STRIPLING